EU’S GENERAL COURT UPHOLDS AN ANTITRUST RULING ISSUED TO ALPHABET

In 2018, Google was fined for allegedly violating anti-competitive practices with its use of the Android Operating System to promote the Google search engine. Google’s appeal that Android devices should be viewed as competitors to Apple products and that users could remove Google apps was unsuccessful. The only consolation was that Google’s fine, which was the largest ever issued by the European Union, was lowered by 5% to approximately €4.12 billion. Such a ruling indicates that the EU is standing firm on ensuring big tech companies are not engaging in anti-competitive behavior. Google stated that Android “has created more choice for everyone, not less, and supports thousands of successful businesses in Europe and around the world.”

THE BUREAU of LABOR STATISTICS RELEASES AUGUST’S CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

The CPI reading rose by 8.3%, down from 8.5% in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 6.3% in August. Despite the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showing one-year inflation expectations falling to 4.6% in September, the Dow Jones fell by 1200 points, the worst one-day fall since June 2020. This influenced the recent rise in the average rate on a thirty-year mortgage, which jumped to over 6% for the first time since 2008. The Euro dipped below parity, as traders anticipated larger rate hikes in the U.S. alongside an economic slowdown in Europe. The CPI data led the CME’s FedWatch Group to believe there is a 40% chance that the Federal Reserve will announce an increase to the discount rate by as much as 1% during its meeting from Sep 20 – Sep 21.

Long-Term Borrowing Costs Hit a 24-Year High

Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose as much as six basis points to 5.63% on Wednesday, the highest since 2002, as strong spending data convinced investors the economy can withstand higher interest rates. Consumer spending in August grew at its fastest pace in over a year, and private payroll data came in above forecasts. A global bond index has fallen 2.1% since June, its worst stretch since late 2024. “It feels like a buyers’ strike, really,” said John Briggs, head of US rates strategy at Natixis.

Treasury yields set the floor for borrowing costs across the economy. When they rise, mortgages, car loans, corporate debt and government interest payments all get more expensive, which is why a move in the 30-year reaches well beyond the bond market.

The short end moved the other way. Two-year yields, which track expectations for Fed policy, fell as much as five basis points to 4.82% after a softer inflation reading. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.3% from the prior month, and 0.2% excluding food and energy, below the 0.3% economists expected.

That cooled expectations for another rate increase. Traders cut the odds of an October hike to roughly 36%, down from near even before the data. Expectations had already been slipping since New York Fed President John Williams said one further increase “may be appropriate late this year,” language markets read as a signal there was no rush.

The Treasury has been trying to contain long-term yields directly, announcing plans to buy back up to $6 billion of debt maturing in 10 to 20 years as part of Secretary Scott Bessent’s expanded buyback program. Previous operations disappointed investors by accepting less than the stated maximum.

Not everyone expects relief soon. “A negative growth catalyst will likely be needed to spark a sustained move lower in longer-term rates,” said Angelo Manolatos, rates strategist at Wells Fargo Securities.

That catalyst may have arrived two days later, when September payrolls came in at 29,000. The 10-year finished the week at 5.28%, still near a two-decade high.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/traders-pull-back-on-october-fed-hike-bets-after-cool-pce-data

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Level Since 2014

American consumer confidence dropped to its weakest level in twelve years as views on the economy and the job market deteriorated. The Conference Board’s gauge fell 6.7 points to 81.9, below every estimate in a survey of economists. A measure of present conditions fell nearly 8 points to its lowest since 2021, and expectations for the next six months hit a one-year low. The decline was broad across age groups, income levels and regions.

Prices drove it. “References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. The war in Iran has pushed gasoline above $4 a gallon, retail diesel is near record levels, and heating oil costs have jumped ahead of winter.

That pessimism is changing behavior. Fewer consumers said they plan to buy vehicles, homes or major appliances in the months ahead. Income expectations fell too, with the share expecting a raise dropping to its lowest since January.

The labor market readings inside the survey were also weak. The share saying jobs were plentiful fell to its lowest since 2021 while the share saying jobs were hard to get rose. The gap between the two, a measure economists watch closely, narrowed to its smallest in more than five and a half years. Separate government data the same day showed job openings in August at a five-month low.

Consumers also expect borrowing to get more expensive. The share anticipating higher interest rates climbed to the highest in more than four years, after the Federal Reserve raised rates this month and several officials argued costs should go higher still.

Some economists think that argues for caution. “The renewed pressure on real incomes will be a significant headwind to growth and warrants the FOMC being cautious with any further increases,” wrote Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Confidence surveys measure how people feel, not what they do, and spending has held up so far despite the gloom. Whether that gap closes is what the next few months of retail data will show.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-29/us-consumer-confidence-plunges-to-lowest-level-since-2014

G7 Agrees to Release 100 Million Barrels as Diesel Prices Surge

The Group of Seven nations and their partners will release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks, capping a week of pressure from the Trump administration to bring down fuel prices. The release will be coordinated by the International Energy Agency over the next four months with an initial focus on diesel. European diesel futures fell more than 8% on the news before recovering slightly, while US diesel futures dropped as much as 5.6%. Brent crude ended the day little changed.

Diesel matters more than the headline suggests. It powers transportation, farming and industry, and prices have surged as the wars in Iran and Ukraine disrupt supply. US diesel has reached $6.53 a gallon at the pump, squeezing farmers, while European futures have at times climbed above $200 a barrel.

The agreement also defused a separate risk. Trump had threatened to ban US diesel exports, which could have triggered a global supply crunch with severe consequences for Europe and Latin America. G7 nations reaffirmed a commitment to avoid export restrictions between members, and Trump said afterward that he would hold off.

How much new supply actually arrives is unclear. The IEA already coordinated a 400 million barrel release in March after the Iran war began, and about a third of that had still not reached the market as of this week. Germany had released only about 23% of its pledged stocks and Spain roughly a third. The G7 statement did not break out new commitments from previously pledged ones.

Analysts expect limited relief. “It’s a short-term fix to kick the can down the road another one to two months,” said Joe DeLaura, global energy strategist at Rabobank. Supply constraints remain: refined product exports from the Persian Gulf are still restricted, and Russia has banned diesel exports through October after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.

Fuel costs feed directly into inflation, which is why this matters beyond the pump. The question is whether four months of reserve releases buys enough time for supply to recover, or simply delays the same problem into winter.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/g7-to-release-up-to-100-millions-of-barrels-of-diesel-and-oil

U.S. Hiring Nearly Stalls in September as Wage Growth Slows

American employers added almost no workers in September. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000, and revisions cut another 60,000 jobs from the prior two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, though that partly reflected a positive development: labor force participation climbed to a four-month high of 61.8%, meaning more people entered the job market. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% from August and 3% from a year earlier, the slowest annual wage growth since 2021.

Hiring was uneven across industries. Healthcare added 17,000 jobs, well below its average monthly gain of 33,000 over the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000.

The wage figure is the one worth watching. At 3% annual growth, pay has probably trailed inflation for the sixth consecutive month, meaning workers are earning more dollars that buy less than they did a year ago. That cuts two ways. For the Federal Reserve, it removes a source of inflation pressure, since smaller raises mean less spending power pushing prices higher. For households, it means paychecks are losing ground while energy costs stay elevated.

Markets read the report as a reason the Fed can wait. Money markets priced the odds of a rate increase this month at less than 25%, and the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record while the S&P 500 rose 0.7%.

Bonds did not agree. Treasury yields fell early but reversed by the close, with the 10-year finishing four basis points higher at 5.28%, near its highest level since 2002. Equity investors priced in a pause. The bond market did not.

Low layoffs alongside weak hiring suggests employers are pausing rather than cutting. Whether that holds is what the next report will answer.

Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-02/us-jobs-report-september-2026-key-takeaways-on-employment-payrolls
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/asian-stocks-to-fall-on-oil-rally-bonds-in-focus-markets-wrap

Goldman Set to Name John Waldron as New CEO

The board of directors at Goldman Sachs has discussed a plan to promote President and Chief Operating Officer John Waldron to CEO. He would succeed David Solomon by the end of 2027 or early 2028. According to the plan, Solomon is expected to transition out of his role as chief executive over the next one to two years. There is no definitive timeline regarding the succession, and all plans are still subject to board approval.

Waldron has been viewed as a potential successor to Solomon for many years now. He began his career at Goldman 25 years ago, and has served 7 years as president and COO. After being approached by Apollo Global Management and other firms to accept a new position, Waldron instead elected to claim an $80 million retention award from Goldman. This reinforced the floating claim that he would go on to become chief executive.

His experience and expertise across Goldman’s core business and their relationships with corporate and government clients alike have made him a natural leading candidate to take over the Wall Street giant.

The idea of a leadership change came after Goldman Sachs’ attempt to strategically reposition themselves. Early into Solomon’s tenure as CEO, the firm was in the midst of an unsuccessful expansion into consumer banking, resulting in about $7 billion of pretax losses. The initiative started in 2016, and when Solomon came in as CEO in 2018 he championed it as a successful campaign.

After the heavy financial damage, Goldman scaled back and refocused its efforts into its traditional lines of business such as investment banking, sales & trading, asset management, and wealth management. As a result, the stock made a strong recovery and has quadrupled since.

Goldman’s board hopes to see a level of continuity with Waldron as CEO. The prioritization of investment banking and market research divisions, and also expand its existing, fee-based asset and wealth management operations. His promotion would ultimately create a restructuring of senior management, such as president and COO. Goldman could leverage this opportunity to retain certain executives who were passed over the role of CEO in favor of Waldron.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/goldmans-board-has-discussed-a-plan-to-name-john-waldron-as-its-next-ceo-7c5d90dd?mod=finance_feat2_banking_pos5

AMD Acquires World Labs for $8.2 Billion

AMD announced on Monday, September 28, that it will acquire World Labs for $8.2 billion. The artificial intelligence research company was founded by renowned AI specialist Fei-Fei Li. The transaction will be all-stock, and closing is expected by the end of 2026 while it awaits regulatory approval. Li is expected to join AMD as executive VP and chief scientist, and will report directly to CEO Lisa Su.

World Labs’ niche in AI is based around 3D development, also known as “world models”. It develops holistic depictions of environments and the physical interactions taking place within them. Unlike the typical large language model, world models serve to help AI understand the behaviors of objects in the real world. Applications for this technology include robotics, autonomous vehicles, simulations, or other physical AIs.

The acquisition diversifies AMD’s expertise in this growing sector of AI. This deepens their understanding of AI workloads and how they will evolve. Research from World Labs is expected to support AMD’s development of future hardware, software, and launch timelines of upcoming systems.

Before the deal, both companies were a part of a technical partnership to train and optimize AMD’s graphics processing unit. Their previous business ventures helped deepen the existing relationship between the AI firms.

AMD has now positioned itself as a stronger competitor against Nvidia for dominance over the AI computing market. AI is evolving beyond chatbots, autonomous systems, and simulations, which will inevitably create broadened demand for computing power as it continues to diversify itself. With the combination of semiconductor expertise and industry-leading AI research, AMD can further integrate itself into the AI ecosystem and become a frontier for the physical-AI market.

The all-stock transaction helps delay most of the cash impact for AMD. The dilution of existing shareholders will apply pressure on management to generate long-term value from World Labs to justify the $8.2 billion acquisition. World models and physical AIs have yet to experience the same growth as large language models on the market, but AMD suggests that competition will soon move past GPU capabilities and transition towards the specific applications of its chips into more unique models and software

Source: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/amd-to-acquire-world-labs-for-8-2-billion-a8d03d11

OpenAI Next-Gen AI Fails to Meet Safety Standards

OpenAI has cancelled the release of its newest model, GPT-6.1 Astra. The LLM was expected to launch this month, but internal testing has revealed a key failure in meeting OpenAI’s safety and alignment standards. This marks a rare, costly abandonment of a major AI company’s planned product launch.

Compared to older models, GPT-6.1 Astra was capable of far more complex tasks with lower reliance on prompt optimization (human input). Saachi Jain, head of safety systems at OpenAI, claimed the model had failed to stay within the authorized boundaries. These parameters are meant to reduce the likelihood of the AI becoming invasive.

After the alignment issues, GPT 6.1 was also capable of deceptive behavior, more than any other predecessor. The engineers noticed this when the model failed to properly communicate its particular methods or means of achieving its tasks.

Additionally, Astra had a tendency to pursue tasks and bypass specific user authorization. It had provided itself permission to use tools, services, and other means to complete multi-step tasks. The enhanced automation of AI has revealed safety implications surrounding the independence of newer models, resulting in CEO Sam Altman and other industry leaders calling for greater attention to AI safety.

This event came after a separate breach where 700 of OpenAI’s internal agents hacked into Hugging Face, a community platform where users can share AI models. User profiles, private files, and data servers were infiltrated in July when agents gained internet access after escaping their security test environment.

OpenAI is undergoing a full investigation into the cause of the AI’s malicious tendencies. Each stage of development will be examined to find exactly where the LLM broke its boundary. This occurrence has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and public officials, with a Senate subcommittee holding a meeting soon regarding “rogue AI’s”.

As an investment opportunity, this incident depicts clear ethical constraints about the AI industry. The balance of energy, capital, and now safety standards has shaken the pillars of AI’s reliability as an asset class. The delay of AI models due to safety concerns can create demand shocks for computing demand. However, OpenAI’s decision to prioritize safety testing is important in the industry’s product development as AIs become increasingly autonomous.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-chatgpt-model-release-cancel-safety-5a2f9f42?mod=Searchresults&pos=3&page=1

Nvidia Authorizes Historic $150 Billion Stock Repurchase

Nvidia has announced a $150 billion share buyback. This amount exceeds Apple’s buyback of $110 billion in 2024 for the largest share repurchase in history. The total buyback program has now reached $235 billion, which the tech giant will deploy through fiscal year 2028. The board approved the recent amount on Monday, September 28.

Their second-quarter earnings were posted about a month before on August 26, boasting record-high sales of $96.2 billion, up 106% YoY, beating expectations by roughly $4 billion. It was a pivotal moment that provided the financial backdrop for the buyback. At the earnings call, Nvidia also revealed that it expected to increase revenue by 70% in the 2028 fiscal year, which sent the stock price up 4% at the time.

Nvidia was able to increase its ability to return capital without trading off its investment in future technology. Approximately $26 billion was returned to shareholders through repurchases and dividends in the second quarter. This highlights the large cash flow created by AI demand that enables continued investment.

The scale of the authorization is particularly notable because Nvidia is simultaneously investing heavily to maintain its position in the rapidly expanding AI ecosystem. CEO Jensen Huang described Nvidia’s growth as being driven by a “once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing.”

Investors responded positively to the announcement, with Nvidia shares rising more than 2% during early Monday trading. The buyback also comes as Nvidia trades at a substantially lower forward earnings multiple than its historical average, potentially making repurchases more attractive to management.

Nvidia is also working with major Wall Street firms to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital for AI data-center infrastructure, helping customers finance the facilities needed to deploy Nvidia’s chips. The financing plans create added exposure for Nvidia since they provided limited guarantees in case of default or drops in GPU value.

The announcement ultimately represents more than a shareholder-return decision: it demonstrates the amount of cash Nvidia expects its AI business to generate while management continues to invest in the next phase of AI infrastructure. However, the strategy remains dependent on AI spending from hyperscalers and other large customers, making the durability of the current AI investment cycle an important factor for investors to monitor.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-adds-record-150-billion-to-stock-buyback-910f96a8?mod=Searchresults&pos=4&page=1

U.S. and China Advance Trade Cooperation During Xi State Visit

The United States and China advanced several trade and investment initiatives during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington this week. The visit marked the first White House visit by a Chinese president in more than a decade and followed agreements reached during the two countries’ May summit in Beijing.

According to a White House fact sheet, the two governments formally operationalized the U.S.-China Board of Trade and U.S.-China Board of Investment, mechanisms created earlier this year to provide structured channels for addressing trade and investment issues. Through the Board of Trade, the countries reached consensus on recommendations for more favorable tariff treatment covering $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction.

The potential tariff treatment would cover U.S. exports including agricultural products, seafood, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. Chinese goods covered by the recommendations include consumer products such as small appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and children’s car seats. The two sides also created an agricultural market-access working group.

China also committed to purchasing at least 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in both 2027 and 2028. The governments said they would continue discussions surrounding rare earths and critical minerals, an area that has become increasingly important because these materials are widely used in semiconductors, electric vehicles, defense systems, and other advanced technologies.

The developments matter because trade relations between the world’s two largest economies affect companies across agriculture, manufacturing, technology, energy, and consumer goods. Lower trade barriers can reduce costs for importers and exporters, while greater certainty around critical-mineral supplies can help businesses make longer-term investment and supply-chain decisions.

At the same time, the announced tariff measures are recommendations within the bilateral trade framework rather than evidence that all broader U.S.-China trade disagreements have been resolved. Investors will therefore continue watching how the commitments are implemented and whether negotiations lead to additional changes in tariffs, market access, and critical-mineral supply chains.

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-advances-a-fair-and-reciprocal-relationship-with-china-while-hosting-historic-state-visit/

Oil Prices Slide as U.S.-Iran Talks Raise Supply Hopes

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday as investors became more optimistic that negotiations between the United States and Iran could eventually ease disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Brent crude futures declined $2.28, or 2.1%, to $104.32 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell $2.20, or 2.3%, to $92.41 per barrel. For the full week, Brent finished slightly higher, while WTI declined roughly 8%.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators meeting in New York were discussing a potential phased path out of the conflict. According to reporting cited by Reuters, one possible framework would involve Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz while the United States lifts its economic blockade of Iran. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of global oil supplies moved through the Strait, making access to the waterway particularly important for global energy markets.

Supply conditions have also improved elsewhere in the region. Saudi Arabia has been working to restore its East-West Pipeline, which provides an alternative route from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea and allows some exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline has capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day, although restored capacity does not necessarily translate immediately into equivalent additional exports.

Despite the decline in prices, significant uncertainty remains. Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia continue to create concerns about regional supply disruptions, while the potential U.S.-Iran agreement remains under negotiation rather than finalized. As a result, traders continue to attach a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.

Oil prices have important implications beyond the energy sector. Lower prices can reduce gasoline and transportation costs, ease pressure on household budgets, and help lower inflation expectations. Conversely, another disruption that pushes oil prices higher could reinforce inflation and make it more difficult for central banks to reduce interest rates.

The key question is whether diplomatic progress results in a sustained reopening of major supply routes. A durable agreement could ease one of the largest sources of global inflation pressure this year, while renewed escalation could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude prices.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-markets-look-iran-truce-remain-wary-attacks-oil-facilities-2026-09-25/